TY  - JOUR
AU  - Conley,Dalton
AU  - Heerwig,Jennifer A.
TI  - The Long-Term Effects of Military Conscription on Mortality:  Estimates from the Vietnam-era Draft Lottery
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 15105
PY  - 2009
Y2  - June 2009
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w15105
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w15105.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Dalton Conley
New York University
249 West 29th Street #2E
New York, NY  10001-5230
Tel: 212/998-7580
Fax: 212/995-4140
E-Mail: conley@nyu.edu

Jennifer A. Heerwig
New York University
295 Lafayette Street 4th Floor
New York, NY 100012
E-Mail: ennif@nyu.edu
AB  - Research on the effects of Vietnam military service suggests that Vietnam veterans experienced significantly higher mortality than both non-Vietnam veterans and the civilian population at large.  These results, however, may be biased by non-random selection into the military if unobserved background differences between veterans and non-veterans affect mortality directly. The present study generates unbiased estimates of the causal impact of Vietnam era draft eligibility on male mortality. Using records from the Vietnam draft lottery to assign decedents born 1950-1952 draft lottery numbers, the study estimates excess mortality among observed draft eligible male decedents as compared to the (1) expected proportion of draft eligible decedents given Vietnam draft eligibility cutoffs and (2) observed proportion of draft eligible female decedents.  The results demonstrate that there appears to be no effect of draft exposure on mortality (even cause-specific death rates).  When we examine population subgroups—including splits by race, educational attainment, nativity and marital status—we find weak evidence for an interaction between education and draft eligibility.  On the whole, these results suggest that previous research, which has shown that Vietnam-era veterans experienced significantly higher mortality than non-veterans, may be biased by non-random selection into the military and may thus overstate the need for compensatory government pensions.
ER  -