TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kotlikoff,Laurence J.
AU  - Pakes,Ariel
TI  - Looking for the News in the Noise - Additional Stochastic Implications of Optimal Consumption Choice
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 1492
PY  - 1989
Y2  - June 1989
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w1492
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w1492.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Laurence J. Kotlikoff
Department of Economics
Boston University
270 Bay State Road
Boston, MA 02215
Tel: 617/353-4002
Fax: 617/353-4001
E-Mail: kotlikoff@gmail.com

Ariel Pakes
Department of Economics
Harvard University
Littauer Room 117
Cambridge, MA 02138
Tel: 617/495-5320
Fax: 617/496-7352
E-Mail: apakes@fas.harvard.edu
AB  - In neoclassical models of consumption choice under earnings uncertainty changes in consumption programs from one period to the next are determined by new information received about future earnings over the period. This proposition suggests testing the neoclassical model by ascertaining whether new earnings information explains consumption choice through time. It also suggests that actual consumption choices imbed extractable information about the extent and time resolution of earnings uncertainty. This paper derives a fairly general theoretical relationship between properly defined innnovations in consumption (noise) and revisions in expectations of lifetime earnings (news). It also clarifies the relationship between testing for the theoretical determinants of consumption and standard Euler tests that focus on theoretical nondeterminants of consumption. The chief prediction of the paper's theoretical results, that noise exactly equals news, is tested using aggregate time series data on consumption and earnings. We find that new earnings information explains only a very small fraction of the variance of aggregate consumption innovations. On the other hand, the extent of suboptimal consumption choice appears to be of little economic significance.
ER  -