NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Money, Credit and Interest Rates in the Business Cycle

Benjamin M. Friedman

NBER Working Paper No. 1482 (Also Reprint No. r0800)
Issued in October 1984
NBER Program(s):   ME

Fluctuations of business activity in the United States clearly have their monetary and financial side, but these aspects of U.S. economic fluctuations exhibit few quantitative regularities that have persisted unchanged across spans of tine over which the nation's financial markets have themselves undergone significant change. The evidence on monetary and financial aspects of U.S. business cycles assembled in this paper shows major differences among the pre WorldWar I, inter-war, and post World War II periods, and between the first and second halves of the post-war period. Evidence suggesting changes fromone period to another repeatedly emerges, regardless of whether the method of analysis is simple or sophisticated, regardless of whether the underlying data are annual or quarterly, and regardless of whether the relationships under study are bivariate or multivariate. Moreover, the differences between one period and another are significant not just statistically but also economically, in the sense of major differences in the magnitude and timing of cyclical movements.The paper's main message, therefore, is a warning against accepting too readily - either as a matter of positive economics or for policy purposes -the appearance of simple and eternal verities in much of the existing literature of monetary and financial aspects of business fluctuations. More complicated models involving many variables and/or nonlinear relationships may have remained stable, but the evidence clearly shows that simple linear relationships among only a few such variables have not.

download in pdf format
   (870 K)

download in djvu format
   (586 K)

email paper

This paper is available as PDF (870 K) or DjVu (586 K) (Download viewer) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w1482

Published:

  • Friedman, Benjamin M. "Money, Credit and Interest Rates in the Business Cycle." The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, edited by Robert J. Gordon. Chicago: UCP, 1986, pp. 395-438 and 456-458. ,
  • Friedman, Benjamin M. and Kenneth N. Kuttner. "Money, Income, Prices, And Interest Rates," American Economic Review, 1992, v82(3), 472-492.

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Friedman Money, Credit, and Interest Rates in the Business Cycle
Friedman w0831 The Roles of Money and Credit in Macroeconomic Analysis
Friedman and Kuttner w2852 Money, Income and Prices After the 1980s
Kiyotaki and Moore w5083 Credit Cycles
Eckstein and Sinai The Mechanisms of the Business Cycle in the Postwar Era
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us