TY  - JOUR
AU  - Fehr,Hans
AU  - Jokisch,Sabine
AU  - Kotlikoff,Laurence J.
TI  - Dynamic Globalization and Its Potentially Alarming Prospects for Low-Wage Workers
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 14527
PY  - 2008
Y2  - December 2008
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14527
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14527.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Hans Fehr
University of Wuerzburg
Sanderring 2
97070 Wuerzburg, Germany
E-Mail: hans.fehr@uni-wuerzburg.de

Sabine Jokisch
E-Mail: sabine.jokisch@uni-ulm.de

Laurence J. Kotlikoff
Department of Economics
Boston University
270 Bay State Road
Boston, MA 02215
Tel: 617/353-4002
Fax: 617/353-4001
E-Mail: kotlikoff@gmail.com
AB  - Will incomes of low and high skilled workers continue to diverge? Yes says our paper's dynamic, six-good, five-region -- U.S., Europe, N.E. Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong), China, and India -- general equilibrium, life-cycle model.

The model predicts a near doubling of the ratio of high- to low-skilled wages over the century. Increasing wage inequality arises from a traditional source -- a rising worldwide relative supply of unskilled labor, reflecting Chinese and Indian productivity improvements. But China's and India's education policies matter. If successive Chinese and Indian cohorts become more skilled, major exacerbation of inequality will be precluded.
ER  -