The US as the "Demander of Last Resort" and its Implications on China's Current Account

Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak

NBER Working Paper No. 14453
Issued in October 2008
NBER Program(s):   IFM    ITI

---- Abstract -----

This paper evaluates the degree to which current account patterns are explained by the variables suggested by the literature, and reflects on possible future patterns. We start with panel regressions explaining the current account of 69 countries during 1981-2006. We identify an asymmetric effect of the US as the "demander of last resort:" a 1% increase in the lagged US current account deficit is associated with 0.5% increase of current account surpluses of countries running surpluses, but with insignificant changes of current account deficits of countries running deficits. Overall, the panel regressions account for not more than 2/3 of the variation. We apply the regression results to assess China's current account over the next six years, projecting a large drop in its account/GDP surpluses.

Would you like an annual subscription to NBER Working Papers? Click here for more information.

You may purchase this paper on-line in .pdf format from SSRN.com ($5) for electronic delivery.
Information for subscribers and others expecting no-cost downloads

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

 

 
Publications:
Main Publications Page
 
New This Week
Working Papers
Books              
Books in Progress
Older Books Online
Digest            
Reporter            
Bulletin on Aging & Health
Historical Bulletins
Free Subscriptions
Paid Subscriptions
 
Research:
Program descriptions and members
 
Working Group Descriptions and Papers
 
Selected Projects:
Conference on Research in Income and Wealth
Conference on Econometrics and Mathematical Economics
Sloan Science and Engineering Workforce Project
Boston Census Research Data Center
 
Call for Papers
Submit to WP Series             
 
Data:
NBER Collection
Business Cycle Dates
Latest Business Cycle Memo
New Economic Releases
Selected Sources
Current Population Survey
Economic Organizations
US Government Agencies
Other Data Collections

Economic Report of the President
Economic Indicators
Congressional Budget Office
OECD Frequently Requested Statistics
 
About
What is the NBER?
NBER Historical Archives
Non-data Links    
Search              
Help              
Contact us
Site Map
Employment              
Fellowships
 
People:
Staff
Researchers
Board
Contact Us
Search
 
Search via Google: