Market Responses to the Panic of 2008
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NBER Working Paper No. 14446
Issued in October 2008
NBER Program(s): EFG ME PE
We model the panic of 2008 as part of the wealth and substitution effects deriving from a housing price crash that began in 2006. The dissipation of the wealth effect stimulates a reorganization of the banking industry and increases in employment, GDP, and unemployment. The release of resources from the housing sector lowers investment goods prices, and thereby devalues existing non-residential capital while stimulating non-residential investment. These predictions are compared with measured U.S. economic performance from 2006 to 2008 Q2.
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