TY  - JOUR
AU  - Below,David von
AU  - Persson,Torsten
TI  - Uncertainty, Climate Change and the Global Economy
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 14426
PY  - 2008
Y2  - October 2008
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14426
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14426.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
David von Below
Institute for International Economic Studies
Stockholm University
106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
E-Mail: belowd@iies.su.se

Torsten Persson
Torsten and Ragnar Soderberg Chair in Economic Sci
Institute for International Economic Studies
Stockholm University
SE-106 91 Stockholm
SWEDEN
Tel: +46 8 163066
Fax: +46 8 6747801
E-Mail: Torsten.Persson@iies.su.se
AB  - The paper illustrates how one may assess our comprehensive uncertainty about the various relations in the entire chain from human activity to climate change. Using a modified version of the RICE model of the global economy and climate, we perform Monte Carlo simulations, where full sets of parameters in the model's most important equations are drawn randomly from pre-specified distributions, and present results in the forms of fan charts and histograms. Our results suggest that under a Business-As-Usual scenario, the median increase of global mean temperature in 2105 relative to 1900 will be around 4.5 °C. The 99 percent confidence interval ranges from 3.0 °C to 6.9 °C. Uncertainty about socio-economic drivers of climate change lie behind a non-trivial part of this uncertainty about global warming.
ER  -