NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Uncertainty, Climate Change and the Global Economy

David von Below, Torsten Persson

NBER Working Paper No. 14426
Issued in October 2008
NBER Program(s):   IFM   PE

The paper illustrates how one may assess our comprehensive uncertainty about the various relations in the entire chain from human activity to climate change. Using a modified version of the RICE model of the global economy and climate, we perform Monte Carlo simulations, where full sets of parameters in the model's most important equations are drawn randomly from pre-specified distributions, and present results in the forms of fan charts and histograms. Our results suggest that under a Business-As-Usual scenario, the median increase of global mean temperature in 2105 relative to 1900 will be around 4.5 °C. The 99 percent confidence interval ranges from 3.0 °C to 6.9 °C. Uncertainty about socio-economic drivers of climate change lie behind a non-trivial part of this uncertainty about global warming.

download in pdf format
   (806 K)

email paper

This paper is available as PDF (806 K) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w14426

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Dell, Jones, and Olken w14132 Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century
Goulder and Pizer w11923 The Economics of Climate Change
Nordhaus w12741 The "Stern Review" on the Economics of Climate Change
Pindyck w15692 Modeling the Impact of Warming in Climate Change Economics
Pindyck w15259 Uncertain Outcomes and Climate Change Policy
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us