TY  - JOUR
AU  - Crucini,Mario J.
AU  - Kose,M. Ayhan
AU  - Otrok,Christopher
TI  - What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 14380
PY  - 2008
Y2  - October 2008
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14380
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14380.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Mario J. Crucini
Department of Economics
Vanderbilt University
Box 1819 Station B
Nashville, TN 37235-1819
Tel: 615/322-7357
Fax: 615/343-8459
E-Mail: mario.j.crucini@vanderbilt.edu

M. Ayhan Kose
Research Department
International Monetary Fund
700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
E-Mail: akose@imf.org

Christopher Otrok
Department of Economics
University of Missouri
Columbia, MO  65211
Tel: 573-882-1587
E-Mail: otrokc@missouri.edu
AB  - We examine the driving forces of G-7 business cycles. We decompose national business cycles into common and nation-specific components using a dynamic factor model. We also do this for driving variables found in business cycle models: productivity; measures of fiscal and monetary policy; the terms of trade and oil prices. We find a large common factor in oil prices, productivity, and the terms of trade. Productivity is the main driving force, with other drivers isolated to particular nations or sub-periods. Along these lines, we document shifts in the correlation of the G-7 component of each driver with the overall G-7 cycle.
ER  -