@techreport{NBERw14380,
 title = "What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?",
 author = "Mario J. Crucini and M. Ayhan Kose and Christopher Otrok",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Working Paper",
 series = "Working Paper Series",
 number = "14380",
 year = "2008",
 month = "October",
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w14380",
 abstract = {We examine the driving forces of G-7 business cycles. We decompose national business cycles into common and nation-specific components using a dynamic factor model. We also do this for driving variables found in business cycle models: productivity; measures of fiscal and monetary policy; the terms of trade and oil prices. We find a large common factor in oil prices, productivity, and the terms of trade. Productivity is the main driving force, with other drivers isolated to particular nations or sub-periods. Along these lines, we document shifts in the correlation of the G-7 component of each driver with the overall G-7 cycle.},
}