TY  - JOUR
AU  - Fogel,Robert W.
TI  - Forecasting the Cost of U.S. Health Care in 2040
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 14361
PY  - 2008
Y2  - September 2008
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14361
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14361.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Robert W. Fogel
Director,  Center for Population Economics
University of Chicago, Booth School of Business
5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue, Suite 367
Chicago, IL  60637
Tel: 773/702-7709
Fax: 773/702-2901
E-Mail: rwf@cpe.uchicago.edu
AB  - One of the most important debates among health economists in rich nations is whether advances in biotechnology will spare their health care systems from a financial crisis. We must consider that prevalence rates of chronic diseases declined during the twentieth century and that this rate of decline has accelerated. However, health care costs may continue to increase even as the age of onset of chronic diseases is delayed, because the proportion of a cohort living to late ages will increase. The accelerating decline in the prevalence of chronic diseases during the course of the twentieth century supports the proposition that increases in life expectancy during the twenty-first century will be fairly large, but the effect on health care in the U.S. will be modest. The income elasticity for health services is calculated at 1.6, meaning that income expenditures on health care in the U.S. are likely to rise from a current level of about 15 percent to about 29 percent of GDP in 2040.
ER  -