TY  - JOUR
AU  - Edwards,Ryan D.
TI  - The Cost of Uncertain Life Span
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 14093
PY  - 2008
Y2  - June 2008
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14093
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14093.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Ryan D. Edwards
Department of Economics
Queens College - CUNY
Powdermaker Hall 300-S
Flushing, NY 11367
Tel: 718/997-5189
Fax: 718/997-5466
E-Mail: redwards@qc.cuny.edu
AB  - A considerable amount of uncertainty surrounds life expectancy at birth, the average length of life. The standard deviation in adult life spans is about 15 years in the U.S., and theory and evidence suggest it is costly. In this paper, I calibrate a standard intertemporal model to show that one less year in standard deviation is worth about half a mean life year. Differences in the standard deviation amplify measured differences in life expectancy between the U.S. and other industrialized countries, and accounting for historical gains against the standard deviation raises the total value of mortality declines during the last century by about 25 percent.
ER  -