NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting

Kenneth S. Rogoff, Vania Stavrakeva

NBER Working Paper No. 14071
Issued in June 2008
NBER Program(s):   IFM   ME

Are structural models getting closer to being able to forecast exchange rates at short horizons? Here we argue that misinterpretation of some new out-of-sample tests for nested models, over-reliance on asymptotic test statistics, and failure to sufficiently check robustness to alternative time windows have led many studies to overstate even the relatively thin positive results that have been found. We find that by allowing for common cross-country shocks in our panel forecasting specification, we are able to generate some improvement, but even that improvement is not entirely robust to the forecast window, and much of the gain appears to come from non-structural rather than structural factors.

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This paper was revised on December 5, 2011

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w14071

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