Globalization and the Great Divergence: Terms of Trade Booms and Volatility in the Poor Periphery 1782-1913
NBER Working Paper No. 13841
---- Acknowledgements ----
Laird Bell Professor of Economics, Harvard. Address: email@example.com, 216 Littauer, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass. 02138. This paper explores the impact of the terms of trade boom and its volatility on growth in the poor periphery across the 19th century. In so doing, it offers an assessment of the contribution of globalization to the Great Divergence in per capita income between core and periphery. It will underlie my Fisher Lecture (Adelaide: April 10, 2008) and my Hicks Lecture (Oxford: May 27, 2008). The paper is a sequel to three recent publications of mine that stressed instead the period during and after the late 19th century, 1870-1939 (Williamson 2005, 2006b; Blattman et al. 2007). I gratefully acknowledge help with the data from Lety Arroyo Abad, Luis Bértola, Luis Catão, David Clingingsmith, Aurora Gómez Galvarriato, Rafa Dobado González, Gregg Huff, Pedro Lains, Leandro Prados de la Escosura, and Tarik Yousef, as well as instruction in Excel and data manipulation by Hilary Williamson Hoynes and Amy Williamson Shaffer. I also acknowledge the excellent research assistance of Janet He and Taylor Owings, as well as financial support from the Harvard Faculty of Arts and Sciences. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.