TY  - JOUR
AU  - Grossman,Herschel I.
TI  - Counterfactuals, Forecasts, and Choice-Theoretic Modelling of Policy
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 1381
PY  - 1984
Y2  - June 1984
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w1381
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w1381.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Herschel Grossman
Department of Economics
Box B
Brown University
Providence, RI  02912
Tel: 401/863-2606
Fax: 401/863-1970
AB  - This paper focuses on the problem of formulating an analysis of economic policy that is consistent with rational expectations. Cooley, LeRoy,and Raymon show that the Lucas and Sargent strategy for econometric policy evaluation is itself vulnerable to the logic of the Lucas critique. The present discussion develops the distinction between counter factuals and forecasts to clarify the nature of the inconsistencies in the Lucas and Sargent strategy. The paper goes on to propose and to illustrate a strategy for positive economic analysis that incorporates choice-theoretical modelling of policy. Such modelling can allow better forecasting, but it also shifts attention away from policy actions and their effects and towards the more fundamental relation between the policymaker's constraints and targets and economic outcomes. The forecasting problem in a choice-theoretic model of policy concerns the effects of hypothetical realizations of variables that determine the policymaker's constraints and targets. The analysis of counter factuals in this context recognizes that the parameters of the policy process are not invariant with respect to the processes that generate these exogenous variables. A program of positive economics that includes choice-theoretic modelling of policy also preserves a distinct role for policy advice as part of the process being modelled.
ER  -