Federal Institutions and the Democratic Transition: Learning from South Africa

We present a model of a peaceful transition in South Africa from white, elite rule under apartheid to a multi-racial democracy. We ask how can the emerging majority credibly promise not to exploit the once ruling elite? Under South Africa's "democratic federalism" the constitution creates an annual policy game where the new majority and the elite each control one policy instrument of importance to the other. The game has a stable, stationary democratic equilibrium that the elite prefer to autocratic rule. For the elite, the move to democracy means higher tax rates, but also higher economic growth; democracy is preferred to apartheid if the elite's rate of time preference is less than the transition's rate of return.

You may purchase this paper on-line in .pdf format from SSRN.com ($5) for electronic delivery.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX