TY - JOUR AU - Taylor,John B. TI - The Explanatory Power of Monetary Policy Rules JF - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series VL - No. 13685 PY - 2007 Y2 - December 2007 UR - http://www.nber.org/papers/w13685 L1 - http://www.nber.org/papers/w13685.pdf N1 - Author contact info: John B. Taylor Herbert Hoover Memorial Building Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305-6010 Tel: 650/723-9677 Fax: 650-723-1687 E-Mail: John.Taylor@stanford.edu AB - This paper shows that the theory of monetary policy rules is able to explain, predict, and help understand a variety of phenomenon in macroeconomics and finance, including the Great Moderation, the correlation between exchange rates and interest rates, and the shift in the response of the term structure of interest rates to inflation and output. Although the theory was originally designed for normative reasons, it has turned out to have positive implications which validate it scientifically. And while initially focused on the United States, it has applied equally well in other countries. ER -