Foreign Capital and Economic Growth in the First Era of Globalization

We explore the association between economic growth and participation in the international capital market. In standard growth regressions, we find mixed evidence of any association between economic growth and foreign capital inflows. If there is an impact, it comes with a long lag and it is transitory having no impact on either the steady state or the short run growth rate. This suggests a view that there were long gestation lags of large fixed investments and it is also consistent with a neoclassical growth model. We also argue for a negative indirect channel via financial crises. These followed on the heels of large inflows and sudden stops of capital inflows often erasing the equivalent of several years of growth. We then take a balance sheet perspective on crises and explore other determinants of debt crises and currency crises including the currency composition of debt, debt intolerance and the role of political institutions. We argue that the set of countries that gained the least from capital flows in terms of growth outcomes in this period were those that had currency crises, foreign currency exposure on their national balance sheets, poorly developed financial markets and presidential political systems. Countries with credible commitments and sound fiscal and financial policies avoided major financial crises and achieved higher per capita incomes by the end of the period despite the potential of facing sudden stops of capital inflows, major current account reversals and currency crises that accompanied international capital markets free of capital controls.

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