TY  - JOUR
AU  - Amaral,Ernesto F. L.
AU  - Hamermesh,Daniel S.
AU  - Potter,Joseph E.
AU  - Rios-Neto,Eduardo L.G.
TI  - Demographic Change and the Structure of Wages: A Demand-Theoretic Analysis for Brazil
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 13533
PY  - 2007
Y2  - October 2007
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w13533
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w13533.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Ernesto F. L. Amaral
Department of Demography (CEDEPLAR)
Federal University of Minas Gerais
Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais  BRAZIL
E-Mail: amaral@cedeplar.ufmg.br

Daniel S. Hamermesh
Department of Economics
University of Texas
Austin, TX 78712-1173
Tel: 512/475-8526
Fax: 512/471-3510
E-Mail: hamermes@eco.utexas.edu

Joseph E. Potter
Department of Sociology
University of Texas
Austin, TX 78712
E-Mail: joe@prc.utexas.edu

Eduardo L.G. Rios-Neto
Department of Demography (CEDEPLAR)
Federal University of Minas Gerais
Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais  BRAZIL
E-Mail: eduardo@cedeplar.ufmg.br
AB  - With rapidly declining fertility and increased longevity the age structure of the labor force in developing countries has changed rapidly.  Changing relative supply of workers by age group, and by educational attainment, can have profound effects on labor costs. Their impacts on earnings have been heavily studied in the United States but have received little attention in Asia and Latin America, where supply shocks are at least as large and have often proceeded less evenly across the economy. We use data on 502 local Brazilian labor markets from Censuses 1970-2000 to examine the extent of substitution among demographic groups as relative supply has changed.  The results suggest that age-education groups are imperfect substitutes, so that larger age-education cohorts see depressed wage rates, particularly among more-educated groups.  The extent of substitution has increased over time, so that the decreasing size of the least-skilled labor force today is barely raising its remaining members' wages.
ER  -