TY - JOUR AU - Bushnell,James B. AU - Mansur,Erin T. AU - Saravia,Celeste TI - Vertical Arrangements, Market Structure, and Competition An Analysis of Restructured U.S. Electricity Markets JF - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series VL - No. 13507 PY - 2007 Y2 - October 2007 UR - http://www.nber.org/papers/w13507 L1 - http://www.nber.org/papers/w13507.pdf N1 - Author contact info: James B. Bushnell Department of Economics One Shields Ave. University of California, Davis Davis, CA 95168 Tel: 530/752-3129 E-Mail: jbbushnell@ucdavis.edu Erin T. Mansur Dartmouth College 6106 Rockefeller Hall Hanover, NH 03755 Tel: (603) 646-2531 Fax: (603) 646-2122 E-Mail: erin.mansur@dartmouth.edu Celeste C. Saravia E-Mail: csaravia@cornerstone.com AB - This paper examines vertical arrangements in electricity markets. Vertically integrated wholesalers, or those with long-term contracts, have less incentive to raise wholesale prices when retail prices are determined beforehand. For three restructured markets, we simulate prices that define bounds on static oligopoly equilibria. Our findings suggest that vertical arrangements dramatically affect estimated market outcomes. Had regulators impeded vertical arrangements (as in California), our simulations imply vastly higher prices than observed and production inefficiencies costing over 45 percent of those production costs with vertical arrangements. We conclude that horizontal market structure accurately predicts market performance only when accounting for vertical structure. ER -