NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Housing, Credit Markets and the Business Cycle

Martin S. Feldstein

NBER Working Paper No. 13471
Issued in October 2007
NBER Program(s):   EFG   ME

The housing sector is now (September 2007) at the root of three distinct but related problems: (1) a sharp decline in house prices and the related fall in home building; (2) a subprime mortgage problem that has triggered a substantial widening of all credit spreads and the freezing of much of the credit markets; and (3) a decline in home equity loans and mortgage refinancing that could cause greater declines in consumer spending. Each of these could by itself be powerful enough to cause an economic downturn. The combination could cause a very serious recession unless there are other offsetting forces. In this paper, I discuss each of these and then comment on the implications for monetary policy.

download in pdf format
   (48 K)

email paper

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w13471

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Gorton w14358 The Panic of 2007
Romer and Romer w4765 What Ends Recessions?
Reinhart and Rogoff w13761 Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison
Taylor w13682 Housing and Monetary Policy
Taylor w6768 An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us