TY  - JOUR
AU  - Poterba,James
AU  - Venti,Steven
AU  - Wise,David A.
TI  - New Estimates of the Future Path of 401(k) Assets 
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 13083
PY  - 2007
Y2  - May 2007
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w13083
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w13083.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
James M. Poterba
Department of Economics
MIT, E52-350
50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA  02142-1347
Tel: 617/253-6673
Fax: 617/258-7804
E-Mail: poterba@nber.org

Steven F. Venti
Department of Economics
6106 Rockefeller Center
Dartmouth College
Hanover, NH  03755
Tel: 603/646-2526
Fax: 603/646-2122
E-Mail: steven.f.venti@dartmouth.edu

David A. Wise
Harvard Kennedy School
79 John F. Kennedy
Cambridge, MA   02138
E-Mail: dwise@nber.org
M1  - published as James M. Poterba, Steven F. Venti, David A. Wise. "New Estimates of the Future Path of 401(k) Assets," in James M. Poterba, editor, "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 22" University of Chicago Press (2008)

AB  - Over the past two and a half decades there has been a fundamental change in saving for retirement in the United States, with a rapid shift from employer-managed defined benefit pensions to defined contribution saving plans that are largely controlled by employees. To understand how this change will affect the well-being of future retirees, we project the future growth of assets in self-directed personal retirement plans. We project the 401(k) assets at age 65 for cohorts attaining age 65 between 2000 and 2040. We also project the total value of assets in 401(k) accounts in each year through 2040 and we project the value of 401(k) assets as a percent of GDP over this period. We conclude that cohorts that attain age 65 in future decades will have accumulated much greater retirement saving (in real dollars) than the retirement saving of current retirees.
ER  -