NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Crises and Growth: A Latin American Perspective

Sebastian Edwards

NBER Working Paper No. 13019
Issued in April 2007
NBER Program(s):   IFM

In this paper I use historical data to analyze the relationship between crises and growth in Latin America. I calculate by how much the region's GDP per capita has been reduced as a consequence of the recurrence of external crises. I also analyze the determinants of major balance of payments crises. The main conclusion is that it is unlikely that Latin America will, on average, experience a major improvement in long run growth in the future. It is possible that some countries will make progress in catching up with the advanced nations. This, however, will not be the norm; most Latin American countries are likely to fall further behind in relation to the Asian countries and other emerging nations. Not everything, however, is grim. My analysis also suggests that fewer Latin America countries will be subject to the type of catastrophic crises that affected the region in the past. Latin America's future will be one of "No crises and modest growth."

download in pdf format
   (185 K)

email paper

This paper is available as PDF (185 K) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w13019

Published: Sebastian Edwards, 2008. "Globalisation, Growth and Crises: The View from Latin America," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 41(2), pages 123-140, 06.

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Edwards w14034 Globalization, Growth and Crises: The View from Latin America
Edwards w15190 FORTY YEARS OF LATIN AMERICA'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: From the Alliance for Progress to the Washington Consensus
Edwards w15171 Latin America's Decline: A Long Historical View
Barro w5698 Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study
Edwards w17074 Exchange Rates in Emerging Countries: Eleven Empirical Regularities from Latin America and East Asia
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us