TY - JOUR AU - Bleich,Sara AU - Cutler,David AU - Murray,Christopher AU - Adams,Alyce TI - Why Is The Developed World Obese? JF - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series VL - No. 12954 PY - 2007 Y2 - March 2007 UR - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12954 L1 - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12954.pdf N1 - Author contact info: Sara Bleich Johns Hopkins School of Public Health Department of Health Policy and Management 624 N. Broadway, Room 451 Baltimore, MD 21205 E-Mail: sbleich@jhsph.edu David M. Cutler Department of Economics Harvard University 1875 Cambridge Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Tel: 617/496-5216 Fax: 617/496-8951 E-Mail: dcutler@harvard.edu Christopher Murray University of Washington Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation 1616 Eastlake Avenue East, Suite 300 Seattle, WA 98102 E-Mail: christopher_murray@harvard.edu Alyce Adams Harvard University Department of Ambulatory Care and Prevention 133 Brookline Avenue, 6th Floor Boston, MA 02215 E-Mail: Alyce_Adams@harvardpilgrim.org AB - Obesity has risen dramatically in the past few decades. However, the relative contribution of energy intake and energy expenditure to rising obesity is not known. Moreover, the extent to which social and economic factors tip the energy balance is not well understood. In this longitudinal analysis of developed countries, we estimate the relative contribution of increased caloric intake and reduced physical activity to obesity using two methods of energy accounting. Results show that rising obesity is primarily the result of consuming more calories. We estimate multivariate regression models and use simulation analysis to explore technological and sociodemographic determinants of this dietary excess. Results indicate that the increase in caloric intake is associated with technological innovations such as reduced food prices as well as changing sociodemographic factors such as increased urbanization and increased female labor force participation. The study findings offer useful insights to future research concerned with the etiology of obesity and may help inform the development of obesity-related policy. In particular, our results suggest that policies to encourage less caloric intake may help reverse past trends in increased consumption. ER -