TY  - JOUR
AU  - Degan,Arianna
AU  - Merlo,Antonio
TI  - Do Voters Vote Sincerely?
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 12922
PY  - 2007
Y2  - February 2007
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12922
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12922.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Arianna Degan
Department of Economics
Case postale 8888, Succursale Centre-ville
Montréal (Québec),H3C 3P8, Canada
E-Mail: degan.arianna@uqam.ca

Antonio M. Merlo
Department of Economics
University of Pennsylvania
3718 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297
Tel: 215/898-7933
Fax: 215/573-2057
E-Mail: merloa@econ.upenn.edu
AB  - In this paper we address the following question: To what extent is the hypothesis that voters vote sincerely testable or falsifiable? We show that using data only on how individuals vote in a single election, the hypothesis that voters vote sincerely is irrefutable, regardless of the number of candidates competing in the election. On the other hand, using data on how the same individuals vote in multiple elections, the hypothesis that voters vote sincerely is potentially falsifiable, and we provide general conditions under which the hypothesis can be tested. We then consider an application of our theoretical framework and assess whether the behavior of voters is consistent with sincere voting in U.S. national elections in the post-war period. We find that by and large sincere voting can explain virtually all of the individual-level observations on voting behavior in presidential and congressional U.S. elections in the data.
ER  -