TY  - JOUR
AU  - Liu,Jin-Tan
AU  - Tsou,Meng-Wen
AU  - Hammitt,James
TI  - Health Information and Subjective Survival Probability: Evidence from Taiwan
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 12864
PY  - 2007
Y2  - January 2007
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12864
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12864.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Jin-Tan Liu
Department of Economics
National Taiwan University
21 Hsu-Chow Road
Taipei (100), TAIWAN
Tel: 886-2-23519641/520
Fax: 886-2-2351-1826
E-Mail: liujt@ntu.edu.tw

Meng-Wen Tsou
National Central University, Taiwan
E-Mail: tsoumw@ncu.edu.tw

James Hammitt
Harvard University (Center for Risk Analysis)
718 Huntington Avenue
Boston, MA 02115
E-Mail: jkh@harvard.edu
AB  - The effect of new health information on individuals' expectations about their longevity is examined using a Bayesian learning model. Using two-period panel-structured survey data from Taiwan, we find that subjective probabilities of living to age 75 and 85 are significantly smaller for respondents with more abnormal medical test outcomes and for those receiving more extensive advice on health behavior from their physicians. The subjective probability of survival declines with health shocks such as developing heart disease. Using pooled cross-sectional data, we find that males and married persons are more optimistic about their longevity expectations than females and single persons, and that income is strongly correlated with the subjective probability of living to age 75. Consistent with previous studies, the longevity of the same-sex parent is strongly associated with an individual’s own expectation of living to age 75.
ER  -