Unanticipated Money and Interest Rates
NBER Working Paper No. 1278
Evidence on the relationship between unanticipated money and interestrates has been provided by two types of studies. First, several researchers have investigated the relationship using quarterly data. Second, a number of researchers have examined the effect of money announcement surprises on interest rates. In both instances, the correlation between money surprises and interest rates has usually been found to be non-negative.This paper first provides an interpretation of the correlation between unanticipated money and interest rates in terms of Federal Reserve policy objectives and operating procedures. Then, the correlation of unanticipated money and both short- and long-term interest rates is examined over weekly intervals, combining several aspects of the previous quarterly and announcement studies. In addition, the distinction between unpredicted and unperceived money also is considered.
Published: Roely, V. Vance and Carl E. Walsh. "Unanticipated Money and Interest Rates ." American Economic Review, Vol. 74, No. 2, (May 1984), pp. 49-54.