TY  - JOUR
AU  - Clarida,Richard H.
AU  - Friedman,Benjamin M.
TI  - The Behavior of U.S. Short-Term Interest Rates Since October 1979
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 1273
PY  - 1984
Y2  - November 1984
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w1273
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w1273.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Richard H. Clarida
Columbia University
420 West 118th Street
Room 1111, IAB
New York, NY  10027
Tel: 212/854-3676
Fax: 212/854-8059
E-Mail: rhc2@columbia.edu

Benjamin M. Friedman
Department of Economics
Littauer Center 127
Harvard University
Cambridge, MA  02138
Tel: 617/495-4246
Fax: 617/495-7730
E-Mail: bfriedman@harvard.edu
AB  - Short-term interest rates in the United States have been "too high" since October 1979 in the sense that both unconditional and conditional forecasts, based on an estimated vector autoregression model summarizing the prior experience,under predict short-term interest rates during this period. Although a non-structural model cannot directly answer the question of why this has been so,comparisons of alternative conditional forecasts point to the post-October 1979 relationship between the growth of real income and the growth of real money balances as closely connected to the level and pattern of short-term interestrates. This finding is consistent with the authors' earlier conclusion, based on analysis of a small structural macroeconometric model, that the high average level of interest rates has been due to a combination of slow growth of (nominal)money supply and continuing price inflation, which together have kept real balances small in relation to prevailing levels of economic activity.
ER  -