TY  - JOUR
AU  - Horioka,Charles Yuji
AU  - Wan,Junmin
TI  - The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 12723
PY  - 2006
Y2  - December 2006
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12723
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12723.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Charles Y. Horioka
Institute of Social and Economic Research
Osaka University
6-1 Mihogaoka, Ibaraki-shi
Osaka-fu 567-0047
JAPAN
Tel: 81-6-6879-8586
Fax: 81-6-6878-2766
E-Mail: horioka@iser.osaka-u.ac.jp

Junmin Wan
Osaka School of International Public Policy
Osaka University
1-31, Machikaneyama-cho
Toyonaka, Osaka 560-0043  JAPAN
E-Mail: wan@osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp
AB  - In this paper, we conduct a dynamic panel analysis of the determinants of the household saving rate in China using a life cycle model and panel data on Chinese provinces for the 1995-2004 period from China?s household survey.  We find that China?s household saving rate has been high and rising and that the main determinants of variations over time and over space therein are the lagged saving rate, the income growth rate, (in many cases) the real interest rate, and (in some cases) the inflation rate.  However, we find that the variables relating to the age structure of the population have the expected impact on the household saving rate in only one of the four samples.  These results provide mixed support for the life cycle hypothesis as well as the permanent income hypothesis, are consistent with the existence of inertia or persistence, and imply that China?s household saving rate will remain high for some time to come.
ER  -