NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections

Daniel J. Benjamin, Jesse M. Shapiro

NBER Working Paper No. 12660
Issued in November 2006

---- Acknowledgements -----

We are deeply indebted to the Taubman Center for State and Local Government and to KNP Communications for financial support. We thank Alberto Alesina, Nalini Ambady, Chris Chabris, James Choi, Stefano DellaVigna, Ray Fair, Luis Garicano, Matt Gentzkow, Ed Glaeser, David Laibson, Steve Levitt, Ulrike Malmendier, Hal Movius, Kevin M. Murphy, Emily Oster, Jane Risen, Emmanuel Saez, Bruce Sacerdote, Andrei Shleifer, Matt Weinzerl, Rick Wilson, and seminar participants at the University of Chicago, Harvard University, the Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics, and the University of Michigan for helpful comments. Benjamin thanks the Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School; the Harvard University Economics Department; the Chiles Foundation; the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston; the Institute for Quantitative Social Science; Harvard's Center for Justice, Welfare, and Economics; the National Institute of Aging, through Grant Number T32-AG00186 to the National Bureau of Economic Research; the Institute for Humane Studies; and the National Science Foundation for financial support. We are very grateful to Sujie Chang, Jonathan Hall, Ethan Lieber, Dina Mishra, Marina Niessner, Krishna Rao, and David Sokoler for outstanding research assistance, Robert Jacobs for excellent programming, and John Neffinger for generous assistance with the second and third rounds of the study. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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