Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?
We use more than one century of Argentine and Mexican data to estimate the structural parameters of a small-open-economy real-business-cycle model driven by nonstationary productivity shocks. We find that the RBC model does a poor job at explaining business cycles in emerging countries. We then estimate an augmented model that incorporates shocks to the country premium and financial frictions. We find that the estimated financial-friction model provides a remarkably good account of business cycles in emerging markets and, importantly, assigns a negligible role to nonstationary productivity shocks.
Published: Garciaa-Cicco, Javier, Roberto Pancrazi, and Martín Uribe. “Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?" American Economic Review 100, 5 (December 2010): 2510-2531.
This paper was revised on December 31, 2009