NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Conventional and Unconventional Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment

Menzie D. Chinn, Ron Alquist

NBER Working Paper No. 12481
Issued in August 2006
NBER Program(s):   IFM

We examine the relative predictive power of the sticky price monetary model, uncovered interest parity, and a transformation of net exports and net foreign assets. In addition to bringing Gourinchas and Rey’s new approach and more recent data to bear, we implement the Clark and West (forthcoming) procedure for testing the significance of out-of-sample forecasts. The interest rate parity relation holds better at long horizons and the net exports variable does well in predicting exchange rates at short horizons in-sample. In out-of-sample forecasts, we find evidence that our proxy for Gourinchas and Rey’s measure of external imbalances outperforms a random walk at short horizons as do some of other models, although no single model uniformly outperforms the random walk forecast.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w12481

Published: Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2008. "Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 2-13.

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