TY  - JOUR
AU  - Cook,Philip J.
AU  - Hutchinson,Rebecca
TI  - Smoke Signals: Adolescent Smoking and School Continuation
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 12472
PY  - 2006
Y2  - August 2006
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12472
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12472.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Philip J. Cook
Sanford School of Public Policy
Duke University
215 Sanford Building
Durham, NC 27708-0245
Tel: 919 613 7360
Fax:  919/681-8288
E-Mail: pcook@duke.edu
AB  - This paper presents an exploratory analysis using NLSY97 data of the relationship between the likelihood of school continuation and the choices of whether to smoke or drink. We demonstrate that in the United States as of the late 1990s, smoking in 11th grade was a uniquely powerful predictor of whether the student finished high school, and if so whether the student matriculated in a four-year college.  For economists the likely explanation for this empirical link would be based on interpersonal differences in time preference, but that account is called in question by our second finding -- that drinking does not predict school continuation.  We speculate that the demand for tobacco by high school students is influenced by the signal conveyed by smoking (of being off track in school), one that is especially powerful for high-aptitude students.  To further develop this view, we present estimates of the likelihood of smoking as a function of school commitment and other, more traditional variables.  There are no direct implications from this analysis for whether smoking is in some sense a cause of school dropout.  We offer some speculations on this matter in the conclusion.
ER  -