Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change
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NBER Working Paper No. 12405
Issued in August 2006
NBER Program(s): EFG ME
This paper makes changes in monetary policy rules (or regimes) endogenous. Changes are triggered when certain endogenous variables cross specified thresholds. Rational expectations equilibria are examined in three models of threshold switching to illustrate that (i) expectations formation effects generated by the possibility of regime change can be quantitatively important; (ii) symmetric shocks can have asymmetric effects; (iii) endogenous switching is a natural way to formally model preemptive policy actions. In a conventional calibrated model, preemptive policy shifts agents' expectations, enhancing the ability of policy to offset demand shocks; this yields a quantitatively significant "preemption dividend."
Published: Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change, Troy Davig, Eric M. Leeper, in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006 (2008), University of Chicago Press
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