TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bordo,Michael D.
TI  - Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Original Sin in Emerging Countries: Déjà vu?
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 12393
PY  - 2006
Y2  - July 2006
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12393
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12393.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Michael D. Bordo
Department of Economics
Rutgers University
New Jersey Hall
75 Hamilton Street
New Brunswick, NJ 08901
Tel: 732/822-7152
Fax: 732/932-7416
E-Mail: bordo@econ.rutgers.edu
M2  - featured in NBER digest on 2006-07-31
AB  - The current pattern of sudden stops and financial crises in emerging markets has great resonance to events in the first era of globalization, from 1870-1913. In this paper I present descriptive statistics on capital flows, current account reversals and financial crises during the period 1870-1913 and compare them with the recent experience. I analyze the incidence of crises and measure their effects on real output losses. Furthermore, I consider the influence of openness to trade, original sin and currency mismatches on the pattern of sudden stops and financial crises. I find strikingly similar patterns across both eras of globalization. The pre-1914 sudden stops were associated with significant output losses comparable with the recent events, and their effects differed considerably depending on a country%u2019s economic circumstances, just as they do today.
ER  -