TY  - JOUR
AU  - Gorodnichenko,Yuriy
AU  - Shapiro,Matthew D.
TI  - Monetary Policy When Potential Output is Uncertain: Understanding the Growth Gamble of the 1990s
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 12268
PY  - 2006
Y2  - June 2006
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12268
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12268.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Department of Economics
508-1 Evans Hall #3880
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
Tel: 510/643-0720
Fax: 510/642-6615
E-Mail: ygorodni@econ.berkeley.edu

Matthew D. Shapiro
Department of Economics
University of Michigan
611 Tappan St
Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1220
Tel: 734/764-5419
Fax: 734 764-2769
E-Mail: shapiro@umich.edu
M2  - featured in NBER digest on 2006-06-05
AB  - The Fed kept interest rates low and essentially unchanged during the late 1990s despite a booming economy and record-low unemployment. These interest rates were accommodative by historical standards. Nonetheless, inflation remained low. How did the Fed succeed in sustaining rapid economic growth without fueling inflation and inflationary expectations? In retrospect, it is evident that the productive capacity of the economy increased. Yet as events unfolded, there was uncertainty about the expansion of the capacity of the economy and therefore about the sustainability of the Fed's policy. 

This paper provides an explanation for the success of the Fed in accommodating growth with stable inflation in the late 1990s. It shows that if the central bank is committed to reverse policy errors it makes because of unwarranted optimism, inflation can remain in check even if the central bank keeps interest rates low because of this optimism. In particular, a price level target -- which is a simple way to model a commitment to offset errors -- can serve to anchor inflation even if the public does not share the central bank's optimism about shifts in potential output. The paper shows that price level targeting is superior to inflation targeting in a wide range of situations. The paper also provides econometric evidence that, in contrast to earlier periods, the Fed has recently put substantial weight on the price level in setting interest rates. Moreover, it shows that CPI announcement surprises lead to reversion in the price level. Finally, it provides textual evidence that Alan Greenspan puts relatively more weight on the price level than inflation.
ER  -