Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs
NBER Working Paper No. 12235
Could a high-access, quick-disbursing “insurance facility” in the IMF help to reduce the incidence of sharp interruptions in capital flows (“sudden stops”)? We contribute to the debate on this question by analyzing the impact of conventional IMF-supported programs on the incidence of sudden stops. Correcting for the non-random assignment of programs, we find that sudden stops are fewer and generally less severe when an IMF arrangement exists and that this form of “insurance” works best for countries with strong fundamentals. In contrast there is no evidence that a Fund-supported program attenuates the output effects of capital account reversals if these nonetheless occur.
Published: Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs, Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta, Ashoka Mody, in Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets (2008), University of Chicago Press