AIDS, "Reversal" of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa
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NBER Working Paper No. 12181
Issued in May 2006
NBER Program(s): EFG HC
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Using country- and region-level data, I investigate the effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility in Africa during 1985-2000. Results differ depending on the variation used and the estimation method. Between estimates that exploit cross-sectional variation suggest a positive significant effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility, whereas within estimates that are identified of off time-series variation show both positive and negative results depending on the HIV/AIDS variable used. These within estimates are insignificant in most of the specifications.
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This paper was revised on June 16, 2010 Acknowledgments
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