NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

AIDS, "Reversal" of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

NBER Working Paper No. 12181
Issued in May 2006
NBER Program(s):   EFG   HC

Using country- and region-level data, I investigate the effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility in Africa during 1985-2000. Results differ depending on the variation used and the estimation method. Between estimates that exploit cross-sectional variation suggest a positive significant effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility, whereas within estimates that are identified of off time-series variation show both positive and negative results depending on the HIV/AIDS variable used. These within estimates are insignificant in most of the specifications.

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This paper was revised on June 16, 2010

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w12181

Published: Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July. citation courtesy of

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