TY  - JOUR
AU  - Whalley,John
TI  - The Post MFA Performance of Developing Asia
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 12178
PY  - 2006
Y2  - May 2006
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12178
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12178.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
John Whalley
Department of Economics
Social Science Centre
University of Western Ontario
London, ON N6A 5C2
CANADA
Tel: 519/661-3509
Fax: 519/661-3666
E-Mail: jwhalley@uwo.ca
M2  - featured in NBER digest on 2006-05-01
AB  - This paper assesses the impact thus far that the termination of trade restrictions under the Multi Fibre Arrangement (MFA) which up to the end of 2004 applied to exports of clothing and textiles in key OECD markets has had on Asian suppliers. The speculation prior to MFA termination had been that large increases of Chinese exports would ensue, and at the expense of other Asian suppliers. Using data from US, EU Chinese and other sources, the picture that emerges is only small impacts on aggregate US and EU imports of clothing and textiles, and equally only small impacts on aggregate Chinese exports of clothing and textiles. There are, however, large changes in the country pattern of trade, and also within more narrowly defined product categories. There are large increases in shipments from China to both the US and the EU, and for the US proportionally more so in textiles than in clothing. But the US accounts for only 20% of China's exports of clothing and textiles, and exports to Japan (comparable in size to the US) hardly change, and to Hong Kong fall sharply. There are also large price falls for shipments to the US and to certain EU countries (Germany). The shares of other Asian suppliers in US markets generally hold up well, with the largest falls occurring in preferentially treated non Asian suppliers such as Mexico. In EU markets, with the exception of India, all non Chinese Asian suppliers experience falls in their market share.
ER  -