TY  - JOUR
AU  - Edwards,Sebastian
TI  - The U.S. Current Account Deficit: Gradual Correction or Abrupt Adjustment?
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 12154
PY  - 2006
Y2  - April 2006
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12154
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12154.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Sebastian Edwards
UCLA Anderson Graduate School of Business
110 Westwood Plaza, Suite C508
Box 951481
Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481
Tel: 310/206-6797
Fax: 310/206-5825
E-Mail: sebastian.edwards@anderson.ucla.edu
AB  - In this paper I use a large multi-country data set to analyze the determinants of abrupt and large %u201Ccurrent account reversals.%u201D The results from a variance-component probit model indicate that the probability of experiencing a major current account reversal is positively affected by larger current account deficits, lower prices of exports relative to imports, and expansive monetary policies. On the other hand, this probability is lower for more advanced countries, and for countries with flexible exchange rates. An analysis of the marginal effects of current account deficits and of the predicted probability of reversal indicates that both have increased significantly for the U.S. since 1999. However, the level of this probability is still on the low side. I estimate that the predicted probability of a current account reversal in the U.S. has increased from 1.7% in 1999, to 14.9% in 2006.
ER  -