TY - JOUR AU - Long,Genia AU - Cutler,David AU - Berndt,Ernst R. AU - Royer,Jimmy AU - Fournier,Andrée-Anne AU - Sasser,Alicia AU - Cremieux,Pierre TI - The Impact of Antihypertensive Drugs on the Number and Risk of Death, Stroke and Myocardial Infarction in the United States JF - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series VL - No. 12096 PY - 2006 Y2 - March 2006 UR - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12096 L1 - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12096.pdf N1 - Author contact info: Genia Long David M. Cutler Department of Economics Harvard University 1875 Cambridge Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Tel: 617/496-5216 Fax: 617/496-8951 E-Mail: dcutler@harvard.edu Ernst R. Berndt MIT Sloan School of Management 100 Main Street, E62-518 Cambridge, MA 02142 Tel: 617/253-2665 Fax: 617-227-0880 E-Mail: eberndt@mit.edu Jimmy Royer Andree-Anne Fournier Alicia Sasser E-Mail: alicia.sasser@bos.frb.org Pierre Cremieux M2 - featured in NBER digest on 2006-03-20 AB - Estimating the value of medical innovation is a continual challenge. In this research, we quantify the impact of antihypertensive therapy on U.S. blood pressures, risk and number of heart attacks, strokes, and deaths. We also consider the potential for further improvements. We estimate the value of innovation using equations relating blood pressure to adverse outcomes from the Framingham Heart Study. Our results show that without antihypertensive therapy, 1999-2000 average blood pressure for the U.S. population age 40 plus would have been 10-13 percent higher. 86,000 excess premature deaths from cardiovascular disease (2001), and 833,000 hospital discharges for stroke and heart attacks (2002) would have occurred. Life expectancy would be 0.5 (men) and 0.4 (women) years lower. At guideline care, there would have been 89,000 fewer premature deaths (2001) and 420,000 fewer hospital discharges for stroke and heart attack (2002) than observed. Our analysis suggests that antihypertensive therapy has had a significant impact on cardiovascular health outcomes but that mortality gains would have been approximately twice as high if guideline care had been achieved for all. ER -