TY - JOUR AU - Davis,Steven J. AU - Murphy,Kevin M. AU - Topel,Robert H. TI - War in Iraq versus Containment JF - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series VL - No. 12092 PY - 2006 Y2 - March 2006 UR - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12092 L1 - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12092.pdf N1 - Author contact info: Steven J. Davis Booth School of Business The University of Chicago 5807 South Woodlawn Avenue Chicago, IL 60637 Tel: 773/702-7312 Fax: 773/834-0733 E-Mail: Steven.Davis@ChicagoBooth.edu Kevin M. Murphy Booth School of Business The University of Chicago 5807 S. Woodlawn Ave. Chicago, IL 60637 Tel: 773/702-7280 Fax: 773/834-3554 E-Mail: murphy@chicagoBooth.edu Robert H. Topel Booth School of Business The University of Chicago 5807 South Woodlawn Avenue Chicago, IL 60637 Tel: 773/702-7524 Fax: 773/702-2699;708/798-5080 (home) E-Mail: robert.topel@ChicagoBooth.edu AB - We consider three questions related to the choice between war in Iraq and a continuation of the pre-war containment policy. First, in terms of military resources, casualties and expenditures for humanitarian assistance and reconstruction, is war more or less costly for the United States than containment? Second, compared to war and forcible regime change, would a continuation of the containment policy have saved Iraqi lives? Third, is war likely to bring about an improvement or deterioration in the economic well-being of Iraqis? We address these questions from an ex ante perspective as of early 2003. According to our analysis, pre-invasion views about the likely course of the Iraq intervention imply present value costs for the United States in the range of $100 to $870 billion. Our estimated present value cost for the containment policy is nearly $300 billion and ranges upward to $700 billion when we account for several risks stressed by national security analysts. Our analysis also indicates that war and forcible regime change will yield large improvements in the economic well-being of most Iraqis relative to their prospects under the containment policy, and that the Iraqi death toll would likely be greater under containment. ER -