Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
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NBER Working Paper No. 12060
Issued in February 2006
NBER Program(s): AP EFG
Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management -- in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature, and we argue that resolving these questions is crucial to determining whether current optimism about prediction markets will be realized.
Published: Hahn, Robert and Paul Tetlock (eds.) Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions in the Public and Private Sectors. Washington DC: AEI-Brookings Press, 2006.
This paper is available as PDF (294 K) or via email.
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