TY  - JOUR
AU  - Cecchetti,Stephen G.
AU  - Flores-Lagunes,Alfonso
AU  - Krause,Stefan
TI  - Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 11946
PY  - 2006
Y2  - January 2006
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w11946
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w11946.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Stephen G. Cecchetti
Monetary and Economic Department
Bank for International Settlements
Centralbahnplatz 2
4002 Basel
SWITZERLAND
Tel: +41 61 280 8350
Fax: +41 61 280 9113
E-Mail: stephen.cecchetti@bis.org

Alfonso Flores-Lagunes
Food & Resource Economics Department and
Department of Economics
University of Florida
P.O. Box 110240
Gainesville, Florida 32611-0240
Tel: 352-392-1826 Ext. 307
Fax: 352-392-9898
E-Mail: alfonsofl@ufl.edu

Stefan Krause
E-Mail: krauses@nber.org
AB  - In much of the world, growth is more stable than it once was. Looking at a sample of twentyfive countries, we find that in sixteen, real GDP growth is less volatile today than it was twenty years ago. And these declines are large, averaging more than fifty per cent. What accounts for the fact that real growth has been more stable in recent years? We survey the evidence and competing explanations and find support for the view that improved inventory management policies, coupled with financial innovation, adopting an inflation targeting scheme and increased central bank independence have all been associated with more stable real growth. Furthermore, we find weak evidence suggesting that increased commercial openness has coincided with increased output volatility.
ER  -