NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Robust Optimal Policy in a Forward-Looking Model with Parameter and Shock Uncertainty

Marc Giannoni

NBER Working Paper No. 11942
Issued in January 2006
NBER Program(s):   ME

This paper characterizes a robust optimal policy rule in a simple forward-looking model, when the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters and shock processes. We show that the robust optimal policy rule is likely to involve a stronger response of the interest rate to fluctuations in inflation and the output gap than is the case in the absence of uncertainty. Thus parameter uncertainty alone does not necessarily justify a small response of monetary policy to perturbations. However uncertainty may amplify the degree of "super-inertia" required by optimal monetary policy. We finally discuss the sensitivity of the results to alternative assumptions.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w11942

Published: Gionnoni, Marc. “Robust Optimal Monetary Policy in a Forward-Looking Model with Parameter and Shock Uncertainty.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 22,1 (January/February 2007): 179-213.

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