TY  - JOUR
AU  - Dooley,Michael P.
AU  - Folkerts-Landau,David
AU  - Garber,Peter M.
TI  - Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and International Adjustment
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 11771
PY  - 2005
Y2  - November 2005
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w11771
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w11771.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Michael P. Dooley
Department of Economics
Engineering II
University of California, Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz, CA 95064
Tel: 831/459 3662
Fax: 831/459-5077
E-Mail: MPD@UCSC.EDU

David Folkerts-Landau
Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank AG London
1 Great Winchester Street
London EC2 2EQ
United Kingdom
E-Mail: david.folkerts-landau@db.com

Peter M. Garber
Deutsche Bank
60 Wall Street
New York, NY 10005
Tel: 212/250-5466
Fax: 212/250-2628
E-Mail: peter.garber@db.com
AB  - In this paper we examine the behavior of interest rates and exchange rates following a variety of shocks to the international monetary system. Our analysis suggests that real interest rates in the US and Europe will remain low relative to historical experience for an extended period but converge slowly toward normal levels. During this adjustment interval, the US absorbs a disproportionate share of world savings. After a substantial initial appreciation of floating currencies relative to the dollar, the dollar and other floating currencies remain constant relative to each other. An improvement in the investment climate in Europe during the adjustment period would generate an immediate depreciation of the euro relative to the dollar. In real terms, the dollar and the floating currencies will eventually have to depreciate relative to the managed currencies. But most of the adjustment in the US trade account will come as US absorption responds to increases in real interest rates.
ER  -