@techreport{NBERw11669,
 title = "The End of Large Current Account Deficits, 1970-2002: Are There Lessons for the United States?",
 author = "Sebastian Edwards",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Working Paper",
 series = "Working Paper Series",
 number = "11669",
 year = "2005",
 month = "October",
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w11669",
 abstract = {The future of the U.S. current account  -- and thus of the U.S. dollar  -- depend on whether foreign investors will continue to add U.S. assets to their investment portfolios. However, even under optimistic scenarios, the U.S. current account deficit is likely to go through a significant reversal at some point in time. This adjustment may be as large of 4% to 5% of GDP. In order to have an idea of the possible consequences of this type of adjustment, I have analyzed the international evidence on current account reversals using both non-parametric techniques as well as panel regressions. The results from this empirical investigation indicate that major current account reversals have tended to result in large declines in GDP growth. I also analyze the large U.S. current account adjustment of 1987-1991.},
}