NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis

James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson

NBER Working Paper No. 11467
Issued in July 2005
NBER Program(s):Economic Fluctuations and Growth

This paper considers VAR models incorporating many time series that interact through a few dynamic factors. Several econometric issues are addressed including estimation of the number of dynamic factors and tests for the factor restrictions imposed on the VAR. Structural VAR identification based on timing restrictions, long run restrictions, and restrictions on factor loadings are discussed and practical computational methods suggested. Empirical analysis using U.S. data suggest several (7) dynamic factors, rejection of the exact dynamic factor model but support for an approximate factor model, and sensible results for a SVAR that identifies money policy shocks using timing restrictions.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w11467

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