Expected Returns, Yield Spreads, and Asset Pricing Tests
NBER Working Paper No. 11323
We use yield spreads to construct ex-ante returns on corporate securities, and then use the ex-ante returns in asset pricing assets. Differently from the standard approach, our tests do not use ex-post average returns as a proxy for expected returns. We find that the market beta plays a much more important role in the cross-section of expected returns than previously reported. The expected value premium is significantly positive and countercyclical. We find no evidence of ex-ante positive momentum profits.
Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w11323
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