TY  - JOUR
AU  - Cook,Philip J.
AU  - Ostermann,Jan
AU  - Sloan,Frank A.
TI  - Are Alcohol Excise Taxes Good For Us? Short and Long-Term Effects on Mortality Rates
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 11138
PY  - 2005
Y2  - February 2005
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w11138
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w11138.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Philip J. Cook
Sanford School of Public Policy
Duke University
215 Sanford Building
Durham, NC 27708-0245
Tel: 919 613 7360
Fax:  919/681-8288
E-Mail: pcook@duke.edu

Jan Ostermann
Center for Health Policy, Law and Management
122B Old Chemistry Building
Box 90253
Duke University
Durham, NC 27708
Tel: 919/668-1734
Fax: 919/684-6246
E-Mail: osterman@hpolicy.duke.edu

Frank A. Sloan
Department of Economics
Social Sciences Rm 236
Duke University
Box 90097
Durham, NC 27708-1111
Tel: 919/613-9358
Fax: 919/684-6246
E-Mail: fsloan@duke.edu
AB  - Regression results from a 30-year panel of the state-level data indicate that changes in alcohol-excise taxes cause a reduction in drinking and lower all-cause mortality in the short run. But those results do not fully capture the long-term mortality effects of a permanent change in drinking levels. In particular, since moderate drinking has a protective effect against heart disease in middle age, it is possible that a reduction in per capita drinking will result in some people drinking "too little" and dying sooner than they otherwise would. To explore that possibility, we simulate the effect of a one percent reduction in drinking on all-cause mortality for the age group 35-69, using several alternative assumptions about how the reduction is distributed across this population. We find that the long-term mortality effect of a one percent reduction in drinking is essentially nil.
ER  -